# Computers 5 Years from Now



## MadHappy (Jul 28, 2011)

Ten minutes ago I typed into google, "computers 5 years from now", to see what I'd get. Only one forum popped up, and it dated back to 2006. So, if you're good with math, "five years from now" in 2006 would be 2011. I found it really interesting to read where people thought computer technology would be in 2011, and how accurate, and in inaccurate, some of them were.

For example, someone said, "in 5 years, 2GB is going to be the 256MB of today...just enough to scrape by on." And it doesn't get much more accurate than that haha
Thread -- http://brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=404412


So I pose the question again, in 2011, where do you think computers will be 5 years from now, in 2016?

I'll throw out a few speculations:
1) Six-core/Eight-core processors @5ghz+ will be the norm.
2) People today try to overclock their cpus to 4.5-5Ghz+, five years from now, they'll be shooting for 10Ghz+.
3) SSD's will be _close_ to entirely replacing HDD's
4) 3D monitors will probably be the norm
5) Five years from, GPU performance will be doubled, if not more.

I'll think of more to add later, but you can see me trend here. I don't think I'm too far off in saying that computer technology doubles, or comes close to doubling, every 5 years.

What do you guys think? What are your speculations?

It will be funny to stumble upon this thread in 2016 and laugh at how off we'll probably be haha


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## Hsv_Man (Jul 28, 2011)

Nice thread it was a smart guy who predicted this:



MadHappy said:


> "in 5 years, 2GB is going to be the 256MB of today...just enough to scrape by on."



I am only going to predict a couple of things because I think it is just going to be too hard. 

Octocore processors 8 cores 16 threads will be the quads of today
12gb Ram will be the norm of the day 
SSD's will be the size of normal hard drives today and have taken over completely from spinning rpm drives. 

There is much to look forward to in the future of computing I think.


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## strollin (Jul 28, 2011)

Things sure have changed since my first computer in 1984.  I'm terrible at predicting the future, I would never have predicted many of the new technologies we have today.

I think it's a safe bet that SSDs will be dominant by then.  I wonder about the influence of things like "the cloud" and the various other OSes such as Linux, Android, iOS, etc...


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## NDSUTopGun (Jul 28, 2011)

Thoughts on liquid cooling?  Seems to be a very efficient cooling method for CPUs and I hope the markets will catch on soon.

I doubt software CDs and DVDs will be around much longer.  Buy and download software off the internet, or ISO burning stations available at places like Best Buy or Walmart.  Bring your own USB flash drive  

Windows 95 was the dawning of 32-bit OS.  64-bit came out a few years ago, right?  128-bit OS in a few more years?

Maybe another upgrade from USB 3.0 and SATA III by 2016?

PCI Express 2.0 x16 will be obsolete?


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## Dngrsone (Jul 28, 2011)

I doubt that processor speeds will exceed 5GHz much; not using today's silicon paradigm.

I agree that SSD will be a frontrunner in localized storage, but I'm hoping it will be replaced by something better soon.

I'm thinking that people will begin moving back to netbook-style computers again because the availability of wireless signals to the internet will have reached near-total saturation, at least in the urban ares.

I predict iSpecs-- Apple will integrate a display into some trendy-looking glasses so hipsters and scenesters can watch youtube clips while pretending to pay attention to what you are saying.

Manufacturers have been toying around with integrated liquid cooling schemes for a good decade or more.  No real progress made.  Too messy, too many things can go wrong.  That doesn't mean some enterprising individual won't come up with another way of piping heat away from the processor core...


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## claptonman (Jul 28, 2011)

NDSUTopGun said:


> Thoughts on liquid cooling?  Seems to be a very efficient cooling method for CPUs and I hope the markets will catch on soon.
> 
> I doubt software CDs and DVDs will be around much longer.  Buy and download software off the internet, or ISO burning stations available at places like Best Buy or Walmart.  Bring your own USB flash drive
> 
> ...



http://www.asrock.com/microsite/PCIe3/overview.html

And mind you, I'm still rocking an AGP card...


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## linkin (Jul 28, 2011)

The cloud can go jump off a cliff. Storing stuff like emails and photos is fine on the net, I use photobucket, hotmail and the like.

But stuff like personal files, work, sensitive data does not belong on the "cloud". The whole term "The Cloud" is stupid as well, it's not some magical place where data goes. It's the internet which goes across wires and into some server room somewhere and stored. What's the fuss?


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## Dngrsone (Jul 28, 2011)

linkin said:


> The cloud can go jump off a cliff. Storing stuff like emails and photos is fine on the net, I use photobucket, hotmail and the like.
> 
> But stuff like personal files, work, sensitive data does not belong on the "cloud". The whole term "The Cloud" is stupid as well, it's not some magical place where data goes. It's the internet which goes across wires and into some server room somewhere and stored. What's the fuss?



However, gen-Y already stores their personal files, etc. on the internet.

I agree, there are certain things that absolutely must be held locally, however, I think you will find that locally more and more often will be in the form of a portable drive of some sort and not resident in a particular computer.

SSDs will shrink to the point where they will become jewelry, and interface through micro-USB, nano-USB (or whatever the replacement is) or maybe even wirelessly themselves, though I think we would need something a little more secure than Bluetooth currently isn't.


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## wonderboy1953 (Jul 28, 2011)

*To add, I believe USB 3.0 computers will be the rage*

Nuff said.


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## apj101 (Jul 28, 2011)

linkin said:


> The cloud can go jump off a cliff. Storing stuff like emails and photos is fine on the net, I use photobucket, hotmail and the like.
> 
> But stuff like personal files, work, sensitive data does not belong on the "cloud". The whole term "The Cloud" is stupid as well, it's not some magical place where data goes. It's the internet which goes across wires and into some server room somewhere and stored. What's the fuss?



Cloud doesn't offer anything that isn't there already, but it does dramatically increase the accessibility of its features. From a corporation perspective its a huge deal to "cloud off" your server costs. Scaling up IT capacity will be much quicker and easier. However you will of course sacrifice customizability


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## jonnyp11 (Jul 28, 2011)

in 5 years the 500 buck gpu's, or equivilant compared to todays market, will run games like bf5-7 or so look like real life or better.


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## linkin (Jul 28, 2011)

apj101 said:


> Cloud doesn't offer anything that isn't there already, but it does dramatically increase the accessibility of its features. From a corporation perspective its a huge deal to "cloud off" your server costs. Scaling up IT capacity will be much quicker and easier. However you will of course sacrifice customizability



And perhaps security. What with all these hacks people do. If some company like sony or faux news can't even keep their own data safe, who can you trust with it?


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## Aastii (Jul 28, 2011)

12-16GB RAM normal

SSD standard

Photonic processors will either be on the verge of reality, or will be the latest release


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## MadHappy (Jul 28, 2011)

Aastii said:


> Photonic processors will either be on the verge of reality, or will be the latest release



This is my first time learning of Photonic Processors, I had to look it up. That is seriously amazing, but I wont get my hopes up. If I start seeing photonic processors being sold on Newegg ten years from now, I'll be foaming from the mouth  Five years from now though? "on the verge of reality" sounds about right, but it will still be aways from being in peoples home computers. IF they are the "latest release" five years from now, I'll be happy to be wrong 

Anyways, a couple more speculations:

-Because 3D monitors will probably be the norm, the next big thing will be "visual displays" you can wear on your head 
-What about operating systems in five years? Is microsoft going to come out with some new revolutionary way of navigating the computer? Probably not, but you never know


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## claptonman (Jul 28, 2011)

MadHappy said:


> This is my first time learning of Photonic Processors, I had to look it up. That is seriously amazing, but I wont get my hopes up. If I start seeing photonic processors being sold on Newegg ten years from now, I'll be foaming from the mouth  Five years from now though? "on the verge of reality" sounds about right, but it will still be aways from being in peoples home computers. IF they are the "latest release" five years from now, I'll be happy to be wrong
> 
> Anyways, a couple more speculations:
> 
> ...


They have those for DVDs and the such. Probably could use it on a computer somehow...

http://www.brookstone.com/vuzix-wra...iid=SearchResults|CategoryProductList|639427p

But reviews on them are terrible. But perhaps they could get better.


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## Aastii (Jul 29, 2011)

MadHappy said:


> This is my first time learning of Photonic Processors, I had to look it up. That is seriously amazing, but I wont get my hopes up. If I start seeing photonic processors being sold on Newegg ten years from now, I'll be foaming from the mouth  Five years from now though? "on the verge of reality" sounds about right, but it will still be aways from being in peoples home computers. IF they are the "latest release" five years from now, I'll be happy to be wrong
> 
> Anyways, a couple more speculations:
> 
> ...



Both Intel and IBM already have working prototypes, there are only certain creases to be ironed out. Bare in mind Intel's core architecture will probably be ready for retirement around then, I wouldn't rule out the use of photonics. Get ready for huge performance gains at that point too.

Whether or not they would also be used in the GPU, who knows.

I think we may end up seeing (probably AMD) create an APU that can actually be used by gamers and graphics designers without the need for a discreet graphics card, with everything on one die.

We may also see the death of the chipset on the mobo with everything being on the CPU die. Reduced latency so higher speed, but we will need smaller technology, which we will do come 2016


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## Mark4_4 (Aug 3, 2011)

I doubt we will be reaching 10ghz :L 

Also I would think that about 12gb RAM would be quite common in 5 years


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## jonnyp11 (Aug 3, 2011)

well they've hit about/over 8ghz on something from a few years ago, but then again that was pouring liquid nitrogen onto the thing so not very practical, but i think we'll'v hit it by then


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